Everyone is Secretly Moving Here…

This is where ~92% of Americans are going.

Migration conversations miss this point completely, so this is probably the first time you’ve ever heard this. As real estate investors, we are very interested in where people are going, it informs our investment decisions.

You will understand the where, the why, and the relevance to your life by the end of this video.

Video Transcription
It upends almost your entire life. Suddenly you’re living in some weird world of cardboard boxes for weeks and you’re having dinner from 7-eleven five nights in a row. You are getting roughed up. Hey, I want to share with you what no one else is. Where is everyone moving? There is a giant piece to population shifts and everyone is missing it. And you probably never before heard in your entire life what I’m about to share with you here, and I don’t hear real estate people talk about this, I don’t hear demographers or geographers or market economists talk about this. A lot of people just don’t know this. So stick around and by the end of this video you will understand this and how it affects you. Now first, this is the only type of story that you tend to hear, but let’s look at this quick because it’s still valid information.

More people move to Florida than any other state of the country in 2022. And that’s recording to a new report from the NAR. Florida saw its highest net domestic migration gains last year. Its population grew 1.9% and it was followed by Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee respectively. All right, and again, that is with regard to domestic net migration totals, no immigration from other nations there. Now, geopolitical expert, Peter Zion was here with me five times and we discussed those particular topics at length, but we’ve never discussed what I’ll share with you today. And it is just completely on a different plane than all of that. There is a substantial migration trend that you probably don’t know about, and it’s taken place for decades and decades, and it’s likely going on right now in your home nation. It’s happening in your state, your county, your town, and even on the block that you live on, it’s almost like it’s a secret.

Well, where is everyone moving? That is absolutely and exactly no place. All right. Let me tell you and show you exactly what I’m talking about. And really it’s the big population trend that no one discusses. Everyone is moving here and you can replace that blank, replace the word here with maybe some of those states like I was describing earlier or some particular city, but no, not really everyone. All right. Real estate investors pay attention to migration patterns. And despite the popular pandemic narrative, most don’t realize that fewer people are moving, but it’s a bigger thing than you think. Yeah, this is a long term erosion in the migration rate that’s been taking place for at least since the 1940s and decade after decade since. So as we look into this, this information here, it is sourced by the United States Census Bureau surveys and this migration rate, which some, by the way, they interchangeably call it the mobility rate. They mean the same thing, migration rate and mobility rate. What this is measuring is the percentage of America’s population that moved each year.

That’s what we’re looking at here, and it keeps nose diving down and down and down. And to be clear, again, we’re talking about domestic migration here. No immigration to the US from another nation is factored in. So the point is that America is becoming less and less mobile. And back in the 1950s, you’ll see that the mobility rate was 20%. All right, well, this meant that each year, 20% of Americans moved. All right, well, that was a lot, but it’s been declining ever since. And we’re going to look at why this is happening and how it affects you shortly. Note that the migration question was asked differently between 1971 and 1980, and that’s why there’s a gap in the data there. And this is a trend that really picked up steam in the early 1980s. More and more people are staying in place. By 2017, the mobility rate plummeted to just 10%. And again, what we’re talking about here is the proportion of the American population that moves each year.

All right. More and more people are staying in place. These past five years, it’s picked up even more speed. Now, the 2022 number isn’t in yet, but we’ve got a good chunk of the health crisis era migration factored in here because from 2020 to 2021, only 8.4% of people moved each year, just 8.4%. That is the latest accurate figure that we have for the American migration rate. And since collecting these stats in 1947, today’s migration rate is then therefore at an all time low for recorded American history. So this gets more interesting. Let’s look at what in the heck is going on here.

All right. This is why I say increasingly that America is secretly moving nowhere. And I think that a lot of people believe somehow that the mobility rate perhaps is even increasing, but this tells us that it’s not and it’s really nothing new, but no one seems to notice. But what do you think with Buffalo, New York getting all these four foot snowfalls? Will that in itself push up the migration rate when everyone moves out? Now it’s both short and long distance moves that are falling. The most reluctant demographic to move is families with children. That makes complete sense. And now before we look at why almost shockingly few people move, let’s look at the top reasons for moving among those that do decide to move, which is that group that keeps shrinking. And now this might be another surprise to you. When it comes to the top reasons for moving, it’s usually not about a job.

And again, this is with data sourced from the Census Bureau, when it comes to the top reasons for moving, 46% of moves are housing related. That’s the big chunk. Yeah, housing related with this persistent under-supply of American homes, when people have a chance to get masked up with a housing type that’s right for them, well, that spurs a move more than any other reason. And yeah, that makes sense when you think about it that way, this housing shortage. All right. So 46% of moves are housing related. That’s the number one reason for moving. 25% are family related, 15% of moves are for employment related reasons, and then 14% cited other reasons. So housing is the number one reason for moving not jobs. Hey, go ahead and put a like on this video, a YouTube like if you like, how I’m breaking it down for you here. I’d really appreciate that.

All right. So what’s really going on here? Why are Americans moving less? What’s the reason behind what appears to be about the best kept secret about migration patterns? Well, the first reason is that our population is aging. Older people are less mobile. When the migration rate was 20% plus in the 1950s, again which would mean that one in five people moved each year. Well, America was younger back then, 70 years ago in the 1950s. Secondly, millennials are the largest generation in American history. They’re even more of them than there are baby boomers. And they got financially crunched in both the 2008 great recession and 2021s health crisis led housing friendly. And millennials are still having trouble forming their own household, and that kills mobility. They’re living home with their parents later, postponing marriage and childbearing.

Well, staying at home with their parents, then what’s that due? Well, that means you’re not moving. That one in particular, that’s also my guess is to a reason why the plummeting mobility rate has just accelerated in recent years. And another reason, the third reason here is that there are more dual earner households than there were decades ago. And that makes people less footloose, that keeps them in place. So to review the big reasons why more Americans are staying in place is that they’re older, trends with millennials and more dual income households. And as for the future, what do I think that the mobility rate will do from here? It’s going to fall even further. And why is that? Well, because in the past two years, housing has become less affordable to either own or rent keeping you in place that makes it harder to move out and get your own place. And B, mobile, it’s harder to do that.

And another reason that the mobility rate is poised to fall even further in the near term anyway, is that mortgage interest rates are higher. All right. So what does that mean? Well, that means if an existing homeowner, if they want to sell and move, they’d have to give up their low mortgage rate that they locked in these past few years and replace it with a higher mortgage rate. Well, that interest rate lock in effect, that goes ahead and keeps more residents in place. So that’s what I think for the future direction of the mobility rate. Well, all right. Maybe I find this interesting and enlightening, but what does it really mean to you? What can you do with this knowledge? How does it have an impact at all? So let me share some of the effects of this decreased migration rate with you in just a moment. So let’s project this into future trends and what’s going on with real estate and other areas of the economy, both positive trends and negative trends from lower mobility.

Well, on the positive side, this can actually lead to a less stressed society. Yeah, moving is one of the most stressful things that you can possibly choose to do. It’s extremely disruptive. It upends almost your entire life. Suddenly you’re living in some weird world of cardboard boxes for weeks, and you’re having dinner from 7-Eleven, five nights in a row. You are getting roughed up when you’re moving. So don’t underestimate how hard moving is, a less stressed society. And another positive, although we don’t have this information parsed between renters and homeowners, is that for real estate investors, tenants could very well be living at your property longer. Yeah, this is really good for property investors because vacancy and turnover are your greatest expense as an income property owner, but I don’t really believe that this is some groundbreaking profit center for you. It’s a pretty minor diffuse long-term effect that your tenant might be staying a little longer.

Residents of all types staying in place is also good for the remodeling world and all of the home remodeling related industries. And this is also good for families, families bond strengthen when fewer people move away and you’re together, of course, and this is some touchy-feely stuff here, but this is also good for community formation. Neighbors can get to know each other better and know each other well if they’re neighbors long enough. And that helps with things like residents want to volunteer and contribute to a community more if they feel like they are firmly rooted there. So those are some positives. Now, let’s look at some negative consequences of this lower and lower mobility, this lower migration.

Fewer furniture purchases, and all those other purchases that accompany a new home purchase purchase that really help drive the economy. Low mobility is really bad. Not a growth trend in any way for real estate agents and for mortgage companies. It is not good for them. Well, hey, I’d like to hear from you, leave a comment. Do you have some thoughts about effects, both positive ones and negative effects about lower domestic migration rates? I’d love to hear your thoughts here in the comments. And even if it’s just your hypothesis, go ahead and put it out there. I try to tell you things here on Get Rich Education that you often wouldn’t expect to learn about, building your wealth through real estate, the direction of the economy, wealth mindset, and all of its adjacent factors. So let me know in the comments, what do you think the effects of a lower American mobility rate will be? And what I’ll do is I’ll try to reply to you right there. I’m Keith Weinhold. I’ll see you in the next video.

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